During the primary season, there was a lot of attention paid to the Pressley-Capuano race. That was understandable – how often is it that we have a competitive Congressional race in the state of Massachusetts, let alone a competitive primary? But since then, there has been little talk about Congressional races in Massachusetts, despite the fact that the general election is now less than a month away.
Many may think that’s because there’s not any competition in these races, but actually, we may have a competitive race down here. I say “may” because it’s hard to tell – from what I can gather, there have been zero stories about this race in the Globe and a whopping three stories featuring both of the candidates in the Standard Times, the local paper in New Bedford. There’s no polling, so we don’t know how close the race is. But there are reasons to think the race could be competitive.
First, the incumbent, Democrat William Keating, represents the 9th Congressional district in Massachusetts. While this district includes some solidly liberal parts of the state like Nantucket and Provincetown, it also includes some conservative areas. In 2014, Baker’s best performing counties, at 57%, were Worcester and Plymouth, the latter of which falls mainly in the 9th. Looking at this Globe analysis of election patterns over time, it’s clear that there are consistent pockets of red across all elections in the 9th, even in elections where the state is a sea of blue. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election analysis group, gives the Democrats a 4 point general partisan advantage in the 9th. Contrast that with the 7th Congressional district, which Pressley won—Cook gives Democrats a 34 point advantage there.
Because of this, margins in the district are typically closer than one might think. In 2016, Keating won pretty handily, with a 22% margin over his Republican challenger. But he won with just 55.7% of the vote. Over 10% of votes went to other independent candidates. And this was against a challenger that few people knew very much about: Republican Mark Alleigro. From what I can tell, Alleigro is a cell biologist who taught at Brown University and lives on the Cape, hardly a known quantity in the region.
But this time around, Keating is not facing Alleigro. Instead, his opponent is Republican Peter Tedeschi. For many of you, that name sounds familiar. And it should since Tedeschi was formerly the CEO Tedeschi Food Shops. Prior to being sold to 7-11 in 2015, there were 182 Tedeschi Food Shops in Massachusetts and New Hampshire, and the company had over $600 million in revenues. While there are no specifics on how much 7-11 paid to acquire Tedeschi Food Shops, it seems reasonable to assume that this was a lucrative deal for the Tedeschis.
That means this time around, Keating’s opponent has two critical things that every incumbent dreads: name recognition and money. According to OpenSecrets, Keating has raised more money and has more cash on hand than Tedeschi as of August. However, Tedeschi had spent more as of August than Keating and presumably has the resources to inject some of his own cash into the race to close the gap in cash on hand if need be.
Since there’s been little coverage of the race and no polling, it’s hard to say if this race is competitive. It could be, for the reasons I talked about above. It might not be, given the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans. We just don’t know right now. I get that the SouthCoast, Cape, and Islands are not exactly the Globe’s coverage region, but the northern edge of the district IS in the Globe’s coverage region. Perhaps coverage of the race will pick up as the race heats up and the election draws near. Perhaps it won’t—that would be a shame. So in case it doesn’t, I’ll end this column with a self-promoting plug – the SouthCoast Alliance has secured both Keating and Tedeschi for a debate on the 24th of October. I’ll be moderating the debate. I hope that readers of this blog, residents of the 9th, and the media in this state tune in to learn more about these candidates and where they stand. It could be an interesting November down here in the 9th.