Every election year in Massachusetts, I update my piece on political endorsements in the Commonwealth. Note that the categories below are not mutually exclusive. Sometimes a Small Circle of Friends is also A Perfect Storm.
Herewith, the #Mapoli endorsement hierarchy in order of importance:
The Perfect Storm Endorsement: For Democrats, this comes in the form of people like Senator Elizabeth Warren, Attorney General Maura Healey, and former Governor Deval Patrick. They bring a tested and successful grassroots organization and can put their national fundraising network on alert. Whether it’s more perfect or stormier will be tested this year.
Recall that Healey and Patrick ventured into the contentious 7th District primary in 2018 with Healey endorsing challenger Ayanna Pressley and Patrick backing incumbent Mike Capuano. In that particular battle for the Perfect Storm, Healey was the one sailing into the future of her party. Warren stayed out of it (see the Silent Cal below).
Republicans in Massachusetts don’t have their own version of this. Baker is widely popular and can help local Republicans build support. But he’s more popular among Democrats and independents than he is among the small but active Republican base. He’s stayed out of the nomination battle to replace him. All of the formers (Scott Brown, Mitt Romney, Bill Weld) can no longer carry Cushman’s bread (see below). Baker’s endorsement of Republican Anthony Amore in the Auditor’s race might qualify. He’s the only Republican that seems viable this fall and Baker could help him from the defeat that awaits the rest of the ticket.
The Boston Globe’s endorsement of Weld over John Silber in 1990 fits here as well. The editorial in support of Weld helped him capture the liberal vote, and the Corner Office, that year by a slim margin.
The Boston Mayoral Endorsement in two parts
- The Curley Gets it Done Endorsement: The Boston Mayor wields great power in the city and statewide. A meaningful endorsement by the state’s most prominent urban politician can greatly assist anyone from the statewide candidate to a ward politician. If the Mayor makes it clear she takes the endorsement personally, money and muscle can follow.
- The “I’m with the Democrat” Endorsement: This is when the Boston Mayor endorses a candidate but essential tells supporters, don’t get worked up over this. It’s the equivalent of endorsing with your mouth while crossing your fingers behind your back. Mayor Tom Menino’s “endorsement” of Scott Harshbarger in 1998 is a good example.
Delivering Cushman’s Bread: You really need to ask Professor Cunningham for the reference. But there are two factors: when a candidate is endorsed by those clearly identified with an active constituency and when the endorser is willing to roll up the sleeves and go to work for the newly endorsed. Think John Barros, Felix Arroyo, and Charlotte Golar Richie endorsing Marty Walsh during his first mayoral race or popular Haverhill Mayor James Fiorentini endorsing Dan Kohn in the crowded 3rd congressional district primary. Union endorsements are particularly good ways to deliver Cushman’s bread.
The Silent Cal: sometimes “Silence is golden, but my eyes still see.” The best example of the Silent Cal is from succeeding Senators in Plymouth, former Democratic Senate President Therese Murray and former Republican Senator Vinny DeMacedo. Murray faced a strong challenge for reelection in 2010 and 2012 by Sandwich Republican Tom Keyes. She narrowly won in 2010. The Republican campaign was aggressive and often ugly. Conspicuous for his silence was DeMacedo who did not endorse Keyes. Had he done so and taken to the campaign trail, Murray might have been defeated.
Fast forward to 2014. Murray was leaving the Senate and DeMacedo was hoping to succeed her but he first needed to defeat Democratic former state representative Matt Patrick. Conspicuous for her silence was Murray who did not actively campaign for Patrick. DeMacedo won.
The Blessing of the Fleet: Ted Kenney in his oral history, provided this gem: “That story I told you about the advice President Kennedy gave me down at Hyannis Port at Cape Cod on a late morning was I was going up to attend an outdoor Mass with Cardinal Cushing at the novitiate of St. Stanislaus in Lenox, Massachusetts. And when the novices came up to kiss his ring, he said, Don’t kiss me, kiss Kennedy. I talked at a lot of communion breakfasts afterwards, but that probably was as good an endorsement as I got during the course of the campaign.”
Endorsements from out-of-state (places well beyond Rt. 128): Republican Gubernatorial candidate Geoff Diehl has endorsements from Donald Trump and Kristi Noem. These might help Diehl overcome his rival for the GOP nomination for the right to lose to Maura Healey this fall but Massachusetts, despite the number of national leaders we produce, still practices an intensely local form of politics. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi could not help Congressman Joe Kennedy overcome Senator Ed Markey in 2020.
Although, sometimes these endorsements can become a perfect storm. When Senator Warren & noted New Yorker, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, lent their support to Markey, it was an unmistakable signal to progressives that a perfect storm (see above) was brewing.
The Hail Flutie: Celebrities are only useful if they are adored by the locals. Doug Flutie and Steve Sweeney came out in favor of Scott Brown in 2010. Lenny Clark is backing Diehl this year. But celebrities often can’t carry Cushman’s bread and the glitz that surrounds them may count for little on the ground.
The “You’ll get yours” Endorsement: There is a reason why folks in Worcester, loyal to former Lieutenant Governor Tim Murray, did not support either of the two front-runners for the Democratic nomination in 2014. And there are reasons why Senator Warren and Mayor Wu are throwing their support behind Attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan over Boston City Councilor Andrea Campbell in this year’s AG nomination battle.
A Small Circle of Friends: These are the obligatory endorsements that allies and friends give each other: Peter Koutoujian, Steve Grossman, and Tom O’Neill all endorsed Jimmy Tingle in his run for Lieutenant Governor last cycle or Marty Walsh endorsing his former chief of staff, Dan Koh. Congressman Katherine Clark returning the favor of an early endorsement on Martha Coakley or Maura Healey endorsing one of her early endorsers, Ayanna Presley. Unions stand with their loyal supporters and whole generations of politicos cut their teeth in the patronage politics that fueled city machines.
Sometimes, this small circle has important repercussions. Incumbent Senator John F. Kennedy faced off against Republican attorney Vincent Celeste in 1958, the same year Democrat Foster Furcolo was running for reelection. Furcolo had never forgiven Kennedy for refusing to endorse him in his 1954 Senate race against incumbent Republican Leverett Saltonstall. Concerned for the Italian vote in 1958, Kennedy had his friend Rhode Island Senator John Pastore record a televised endorsement of JFK.
At other times, the small circle of local patronage politics becomes too small. Boston City Councilor Dapper O’Neil lost the endorsement of Mayor Ray Flynn as he ran for the Democratic nomination for Suffolk County Sheriff for the third time in 1986 (“He’ll start paying tomorrow,” Dapper said of Flynn the night of his loss.) By 1999, Dapper had lost the support of his most ardent backers in the labor unions and came up short for the first time in 28 years on the council. After O’Neil’s loss, historian Thomas H. O’Connor was interviewed in the Boston Globe: “Sometimes outsiders say, `How did he last so long?’ ” O’Connor said. “It was largely through these kinds of loyalties he built up over 30 years, from people for whom he’d done favors, and they’d never forget him, and they’d talk about him to their relatives. He built a political career on a system of local patronage.”
The Buckner: Governor Paul Cellucci backed Jack E. Robinson in 2000 then rescinded the endorsement. Senator Warren backed John Tierney in 2010. The entire state Democratic party apparatus and its leading lights trekked up to New Hampshire every week in 2016 backing Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary then all around the Commonwealth. She lost the former and just barely squeaked by in the latter. Similarly, every Democrat of stature worked to elect Chalifoux Zephir in 2018 to fill a Worcester and Middlesex Senate seat left vacant by Democrat Jennifer Flanagan. The result? Republican Dean Tran flipped the seat. Turns out there are multiple Buckners this year as the politicos race to rescind their endorsements of Suffolk County DA candidate Ricardo Arroyo.
Endorsements that don’t count votes. In 1963, Representative Michael Paul Feeney of Hyde Park had two heavy hitters in his corner as he challenged controversial Speaker of the House John Thompson: newly elected Governor Endicott Peabody and newly elected Senator Ted Kennedy. But Johnson had the votes and Paul, Peabody, and Kennedy did not. He was reelected Speaker.
The Friends of Eddie Coyle: This is the endorsement that can kill you politically. Think of Elliot Richardson in 1984. The Massachusetts Republican party was turning more and more conservative. Into the unexpected 1984 race for US Senate dropped Elliot Richardson, a certifiable Golden Child of GOP politics, but from an earlier era. As Richardson began to demonstrate real weakness on the campaign trail and conservative upstart Ray Shamie real strength, former moderate Republican President Gerald Ford endorsed Richardson. Nobody who could recall the Ford-Reagan split in the GOP could have mistaken the cue. Shamie overwhelmed Richardson on primary day.